As the waste sector moves deeper into structural change, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where long standing issues can no longer be ignored, while market forces continue to push the UK firmly towards an energy-from-waste led disposal model.
WASTE CRIME IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Waste crime remains one of the biggest drags on the legitimate market and by 2026 it will be impossible to overlook. Illegal activity is blatant and widespread, suppressing prices and distorting competition across the sector.
This is no longer small scale fly tipping alone. We are seeing organised criminal networks with well-established links stretching from licensed waste facilities and collection rounds, right through to large scale fly tipping and landfill tax fraud. These practices undermine compliant operators, erode confidence in the market and deprive the Treasury of significant revenue.
Unless enforcement, intelligence sharing and regulation catch up with the sophistication of this criminal activity, legitimate businesses will continue to operate at a disadvantage. Addressing waste crime properly is essential if the sector is to function fairly and efficiently.
RDF EXPORT IS STILL A CORE PART OF THE MIX
Refuse derived fuel exports will remain a significant and resilient part of the waste management landscape in 2026. The new wave of UK EfW facilities will undoubtedly place some pressure on RDF availability, and we may see larger waste companies diverting portions of their waste stream away from export and into domestic plants.
However, the RDF market has historically been constrained by treatment and offtake capacity rather than lack of demand. With well established, efficient EfW infrastructure across Europe, this will continue to create opportunities for new and agile RDF exporters to access available capacity overseas. Exports will remain a vital balancing mechanism for the UK market.
LANDFILL FADES FURTHER
By 2026 landfill will be increasingly irrelevant to the mainstream waste market. We expect one of the most pronounced shifts yet away from landfill and towards UK EfW and RDF.
This transition reflects what we have already seen in countries such as Germany, Sweden and Denmark, where landfill has effectively been engineered out of the system. The UK is now clearly following the same path, moving decisively towards an EfW dominated disposal market, with RDF exports providing the necessary flexibility.
ETS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
Incineration taxes are now firmly embedded across much of Europe, and it remains almost inevitable that the UK will introduce a similar mechanism. However, there is still a striking lack of clarity around how and when this will be implemented domestically.
While earlier timelines pointed to 2028, the absence of concrete UK regulations makes a delay increasingly likely. EU member states have the option to opt out of ETS participation until 31 December 2030, raising legitimate questions about the understanding of the UK committing early to a scheme that ultimately benefits the EU. There is a strong argument for the UK to observe how ETS evolves in Europe before locking itself into a system that could add cost without delivering clear domestic benefit.
EFW DEVELOPMENT STALLS
Perhaps most tellingly, the construction of new EfW plants has effectively stalled. Over the past three years, only one plant per year has reached financial close, compared with an average of five per year over the previous eight years.
The funding tap for new EfW infrastructure has been turned off. Rising costs, policy uncertainty, planning resistance and feedstock risk have all combined to make new projects increasingly unviable. As a result, the current pipeline is likely to represent the final chapter of large scale EfW development in the UK for the foreseeable future.
Taken together, these trends point to a market in 2026 moving further from landfill to EfW (both in the UK and abroad), more export reliant, and more exposed to regulatory and enforcement failures, but also one where experienced operators with strong networks and flexible solutions will continue to find opportunity.